A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
