Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: an extensive attack of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: hopeful statements are released from various governments. Immense energy is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from enemy soil, a capacity enabled by current data. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been deployed to counter approaching aerial threats streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that European nations are demonstrably unable to fill in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and profound anxiety – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from Washington follows the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a principle understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House believes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to abandon the areas that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a total frontline collapse until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.
